Movie Box Office Is Improving (But Still Hasn't Recovered From 2020)

Strong performances from films like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever show 2022 box office numbers trending higher, the industry still hasn't fully recovered from the impact of the pandemic. With a stop on film production, film festivals going online, and cinemas being forced to close during lockdown, the movie box office suffered greatly during the pandemic period. The opening weekend of March 2020 fell dramatically compared to the 2019 March opening weekend: in 2019, Captain Marvel opened with $153 million domestically whereas the biggest film of that weekend in 2020, Onward, grossed around $39 million in its opening weekend.

While the numbers are evidently rising, as shown by the box office results of movies like the theatrically successful Top Gun: Maverick, but cinema is not back to the high numbers it had obtained in 2019. With the box office still recovering from the impact that the pandemic had on the film industry, the 2022 box office numbers signify that cinema is heading in the right direction to eventually recover from 2020. According to Reuters, the domestic box office for Canada and the United States will reach around $7 billion by the end of 2022, which is a significant number compared to the sales during the pandemic but still remains one-third lower than the 2019 box office.

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Top Gun: Maverick is the first, and one of the most successful, examples of the improvement in box office that has made 2022 such an important year for cinema. With $1.487B at the box office, Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the highest-grossing film of 2022 but also the second film to gross $1 billion during the pandemic, after Spiderman: No Way Home which grossed $1.92B worldwide in 2021; with both films prove that cinema is able to go back to its pre-pandemic numbers. Top Gun: Maverick broke a series of box office records, such as becoming the highest-grossing opening during Memorial weekend of all time.

While Top Gun: Maverick seemed to dominate the 2022 movie box office, it is not the only film that has grossed more than $1 billion in 2022. In fact, the second highest-grossing film of the year, Jurassic World: Dominion, earned $1 billion as well. Interestingly, although the 2021 movie box office had a film that earned $1 billion dollars, all of the other highest-grossing films of that year did not break the $1 billion barrier. With the release of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of the Water at the end of 2022, this successful trend can be expected to continue at the end of the year too.

However, a closer look at the 2019 box office numbers in comparison to 2022 indicates that cinema has not fully recovered from the pandemic hit. While improving, the 2022 box office does not match the $11.4 billion grossed in 2019. Furthermore, titles released in 2022 like Black Adam were expected to be successful at the box office and, with some even saying that the film could surpass the $1 billion benchmark. While Black Adam has been doing fairly well since its opening weekend, it is currently projected to earn around $400 million during its cinema run. Therefore, while doing well, Black Adam is proving the ongoing trend of box office numbers falling behind their pre-pandemic levels.

The 2022 movie box office has witnessed individual films doing well, but the total box office of the year does not exclusively depend on strong singular performances. Another influencing factor is the number of films released each year: with studios cutting back on total releases in 2022, it seems reasonable that the yearly box office numbers would be lower than the pre-pandemic box office, when more movies were released per year. For example, the lack of blockbuster films during the pandemic years has inevitably put a strain on the film industry and box office numbers.

Related: Marvel Makes Black Adam's $1 Billion Box Office Hopes Almost Impossible

There is no denying that the pandemic changed the movie-going experience for many, with theaters being forced to shut down and box office numbers struggling to cope. However, this change was not entirely negative. When theaters were closed, audiences did not turn away from the cinema. While box office numbers and streaming services have often been discussed together, it is true that streamers, like Netflix and Disney+, saw an increase in subscriptions during the pandemic. According to The Wall Street Journal, Netflix surpassed 200 million subscribers for the first time in 2020, hitting a record of 37 million during the pandemic.

With many films released on online platforms rather than in theaters, audiences turned to those services. The change does not only affect viewership, but also film production itself. Streaming services are now creating a name for themselves as producers as well. Not only they are producing films, but they also work on high-quality and high-budget products, as illustrated by the strong presence of films produced by streaming sites in the 2021 award season. It is in this sense that the cinema landscape is fundamentally changed, maybe for the better, as many movies produced by big streaming services are dominating box office and ticket sales.

The 2022 box office numbers mean that, although cinema may not be entirely back, it is on its way to recovery. Although the pre-pandemic numbers are still far from the box office reality, the improvement seen in box office numbers and ticket sales may suggest a positive trend for the future. As film production can go back to its pre-pandemic schedules, major studios can be expected not only to increase the films they produce but also to have more films released in theaters. In fact, according to Variety's prediction, movie box office numbers will not go back to the over $40 billion global box office that characterized the pre-pandemic years until 2023.

As audiences may return to the cinema over the holiday period, ticket sales may very well go up again, with Marvel Studios obtaining a huge box office hit with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. With the releases of two long-awaited blockbuster movies, Avatar: The Way of the Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the increase in box office numbers may continue at the end of 2022. However, while big chains can resist low ticket sales and wait for these big movies to bring viewers in, the pandemic losses in box offices have affected and are still affecting independent cinemas who may not have the same resources and thus have to close down.

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